Tuesday, 10 May 2011

Liveblogging Lomborg part 10

p. 15

Claim 1: 298 extra people die each year from heat in Helsinki, 1,655 people die from cold.  In Athens, it's 1376 versus 7852, respectively.
Source of claim: Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: observational study
Status of claim: Semi-accurate in the first case (see table 1).  It depends how you measure the population of Helsinki, as Helsinki, Helsinki metropolitcan area, or Great Helsinkinki (see Wikipedia entry here ).  And to make matters worse, populations change.  However, the various estimates see-saw around his figure.  Athens is a bit easier; he lists the population of Athens at 3.1 million, so they both check out (Athen's population has grown a bit since then).

Claim 2: The heat wave of August 2003 killed 3,500 in Paris, 15,000 in all France, 7,000 in Germany, 8,000 in Spain and Italy and 2,000 in the UK; total is over 35,000.
Source of Claim: Mortality in 13 French Cities During the August 2003 Heat Wav, 
Record Heat Wave in Europe Takes 35,000 Lives: Far Greater Losses May Lie Ahead
Status of Claim: Accurate (he rounds up occasionally), but he irritatingly sources that second claim to a website and not a scientific journal.  However, it's one of the Green websites and it therefore seems unlikely to low ball the figures.

Overall conclusion: The fundamental thing that Lomborg is right about is that cold kills more people than warmth.

No comments:

Post a Comment